The U.S. Is Officially Insolvent & The LaGuardia Crash

Hi readers, happy Tuesday! Today we’re covering the U.S.’s budget problem, Trump’s Iran war flip-flopping, a referendum in Italy, the last decade of heat waves, a crash at LaGuardia, why you shouldn’t go to the airport right now, and doomscrolling while driving.

Thank you for reading and please feel free to send any comments or feedback to [email protected]!

“There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long range risks of comfortable inaction.” – John F. Kennedy

Can We Solve Our Insolvency Issue?

Last week, the Treasury Department released its consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025. According to the numbers, the federal government had $6.06 trillion in total assets for the year, against total liabilities of $47.78 trillion. The report also shows that the government is insolvent, meaning it’s effectively unable to pay its bills when they’re due. 

A few things about this. First, insolvency isn’t bankruptcy. Insolvency is when you can’t afford to pay your bills; bankruptcy – which is really the end of the line – is when you can’t borrow money to pay those bills either. Second, while the authors of a Fortune article covering the insolvency have tried to compare the U.S. to a household in order to illustrate their point, the U.S. is the most powerful nation in the world. This means that it has the power to just print more dollars, and it can basically borrow money forever as long as other countries believe it will keep making repayments on time. 

Despite those two points, the context surrounding the U.S.’s insolvency does raise some real concerns about the government. First, the fiscal report doesn’t include the massive unfunded obligations of both Social Security and Medicare. Second, as the Fortune article points out, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a disclaimer regarding the report, stating that it can’t actually tell if the numbers in the report are actually correct. This marks the 29th year in a row that the GAO has tagged a report with such a disclaimer, which might mean it’s normal but also might mean that our government faces much bigger budgeting problems than we think. Only one way to find out!

We’re Getting Whiplash From This War Reporting

It’s been a tumultuous few days in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, meaning things have been chugging along fairly normally for the almost month-long conflict. On Friday, President Trump told the press that he was considering “winding down” the war with Iran, claiming that the U.S. was “getting very close” to meeting its military objectives in the conflict (though we still don’t know what those objectives are).

A little more than 24 hours after Friday’s announcement, the president decided to change course. “If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!” he wrote in a social media post. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf replied with his own social media threat, writing, “Immediately after the targeting of power plants and infrastructure in our country, vital infrastructure and energy and oil facilities across the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed irreversibly, and oil prices will rise for a long time.”

Just before Trump’s 48-hour deadline ticked down to zero on Monday, the president again reversed course, stating that the deadline was no longer in place because the U.S. had held “productive conversations” with Iran. Iran’s regime denied that any negotiations had taken place, but Trump proceeded to implement a five-day pause on his promise to attack Iran’s power infrastructure. So now we’re at a bit of a fork in the road: Trump appears to be considering a quick diplomatic end to the war, but White House officials say that the administration is also considering escalating the situation with strikes on Iran’s primary oil hub (Kharg Island), or even putting boots on the ground to confiscate the country’s enriched uranium reserves.

It’s A No From Me, Mario!

• Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, faced her first major defeat over the weekend as her country voted on a controversial judiciary reform referendum. While Meloni claimed the reforms would make the judiciary more efficient and less corrupt, it appears that Italian citizens disagreed. 54% of voters cast their ballots against the measure, signalling their support for the current judicial system which took down corrupt politicians and gangsters in the late 20th century.

•  “We stood by it all the way, and then we left the choice to the citizens,” Meloni said after the referendum was struck down. “Clearly there remains bitterness for a lost opportunity to modernize Italy,” she added, “but that does not change our commitment to continue to work for the good of the nation with seriousness and determination, and to honor the mandate entrusted to us.” Opposition leaders are hoping that the failed reforms will mark a turning point in Meloni’s relatively successful time in office, as the referendum saw 60% voter turnout with a decent majority voting against the prime minister’s bill.

It’s Been Hot In Here For A Decade

• According to the U.N.’s weather agency, the 11-year span between 2015 and 2025 marked the hottest 11 years on record since 1850. That problem, according to the World Meteorological Organization, is only going to get worse in 2026. Meteorologists predict that we’re going to experience an El Niño event later this year, which will make our already-warm planet even hotter, bringing in even more record-breaking temperatures.

• “Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits. Every key climate indicator is flashing red,” said U.N. Secretary General António Guterres in response to the report, emphasizing the need for the international community to move away from fossil fuels, a shift which he says is required to “deliver climate security, energy security and national security” worldwide.

Additional World News

• Markets relieved as Trump eases on Iran (Semafor)

• Exclusive: Trump approved Iran operation after Netanyahu argued for joint killing of Khamenei, sources say (Reuters) 

• ‘We consider every mile we drive’: how fuel shortages are affecting readers worldwide (Guardian)

• Sidelined by War With Iran, Gaza Residents Remain in Limbo (NYT, $)

• More Australian beef headed for Europe under new EU trade deal (BBC) 

• Strike on Sudan hospital kills at least 64 and wounds 89 more, WHO reports (Guardian)

A Big Crash In The Big Apple

• It’s been a terrible few days at airports across America. On Sunday, an Air Canada plane landing at New York City’s LaGuardia Airport struck a fire-rescue vehicle on the runway. The plane was traveling 30 mph at the time of the crash; the impact destroyed the plane’s nose, killing both pilots, but the 72 passengers aboard the jet and the two occupants of the fire-rescue vehicle walked away with just minor injuries. 

• “It was a disaster the likes of which we've not seen here in three decades,” said New York Governor Kathy Hochul soon after service resumed at LaGuardia. In an air traffic control audio recording taken from the time of the incident, one air traffic controller is heard giving the vehicle clearance to drive across the runway before quickly telling it to stop. “I messed up,” an air traffic controller is heard saying after the crash. While there have been rumors that just one controller was working in LaGuardia’s tower at the time of the crash, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has insisted that those claims are “not accurate.”

Get In Line For Your ICE Inspection

• The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been shut down for over a month, affecting airports across the country. Funding for the agency has been tied up in Congress, as Senate Democrats are trying to hold the department accountable for its agents killing Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minnesota earlier this year. 

• As a result of that shutdown, airport security lines across the country have ballooned, forcing passengers to wait hours before their flights in major cities. That’s because the TSA is an agency of the DHS, and TSA agents have now missed two paychecks as a result of the shutdown, leading to agents quitting their jobs or refusing to show up to work.

• The White House has looked to band-aid the issue by sending ICE agents to major airports, including those in Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, Houston, Phoenix, Cleveland, Ft Myers, New Orleans, and the New York City area. President Trump said on Monday that the ICE agents will be able to “arrest illegals as they come into the country,” calling the opportunity “very fertile territory” before adding that they’ll mainly be there to help with security checks. As if airports weren’t miserable enough already.

Additional USA News

• Despite state bans and restrictions, the number of abortions in the U.S. holds steady (NPR) 

• Large oil refinery explosion near Texas coast forces residents to shelter in place (AP) 

• Newsom Talks Trump, 2028 — and Where He Draws the Line on Israel (Politico)

• US Senate confirms Markwayne Mullin as homeland security chief (BBC) 

• Gabbard plans to shift coveted, CIA-backed high-tech fund to her office (Politico)

• Trump appears to fall asleep during National Guard briefing in Memphis (Independent)

Don’t Doomscroll And Drive

• There’s a new threat on the road, and this time it’s not robo-taxis or flaming Teslas. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), that threat is distracted drivers – in 2023 (the most recent year with crash data), distracted drivers killed 3,275 people and injured over 300,000.

• While the numbers don’t break down what exactly distracted those drivers, highway authorities say they’ve experienced an uptick in the number of drivers who seem to be scrolling on their phones while behind the wheel. “We see people reading, watching videos, watching a football game,” said a spokesperson for the California highway patrol. “People are engaging more and more with their phones [while driving],” added Charlie Klauer, a distracted driving researcher. “The progression has gone from texting to browsing and looking and watching, which we now see a lot of. It’s Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok and a wide range of things.”

• The NHTSA shows that new drivers – those between the ages of 15 and 20 – made up the largest proportion of drivers involved in distracted driving crashes. While Klauer said that distracted driving is up “across the board” in her research, “it’s through the early to mid-20s that we see very high prevalence of this type of behavior.” Even two seconds of distraction, she said, can double your chances of getting in a car crash.

Additional Reads

• Counting calories doesn't work. Try eating smarter instead (BBC) 

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says ‘I think we’ve achieved AGI’ (Verge)

• K-pop sensation BTS returns with a comeback concert in Seoul after a 4-year hiatus (AP)

• China is mapping the ocean floor as it prepares for submarine warfare with the U.S. (Reuters)

• Polymarket’s Coming-Out Party in Washington Was a Disaster (Wired, $)

• People 'bathe' in nature to get respite from chaotic news cycle (AP)

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People are wayyyy too comfortable checking their phones while driving their two-ton vehicles at 70 mph.

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