The End Of Mail-In Ballots & A New Deal In Ukraine

Hi readers, happy Tuesday! Today we’re covering Russia-Ukraine peace talks, mail-in ballots, Mexico’s runaway welfare success, half a ceasefire in Gaza, the Newsmax lawsuit, the national redistricting battle, and pigeons in India.

“The best way to find out if you can trust somebody is to trust them.”  – Ernest Hemingway

Putin Played His Cards Right

Last Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in an attempt to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. While Trump promised that there would be “very severe consequences” if Putin didn’t agree to a ceasefire at the summit, he left the meeting with a new idea. Instead of pushing for a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, Trump is now calling for Ukraine to hand Russia the remainder of the Donbas region (located in Eastern Ukraine) in order to bring the conflict to an end.

After having their weekends ruined by the news, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other European leaders headed to the White House yesterday for another round of talks with Trump. At that meeting, Trump revealed how he plans to move forward with peace talks. First, he wants Putin and Zelensky to meet face-to-face in order to hash out the conflict. After their one-on-one meeting, Trump wants to get involved in a trilateral summit where he helps negotiate a deal – according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the meeting will be held “within the next two weeks.”

As it stands, these are the terms of the deal: If Ukraine agrees to give up the remainder of its territory in the Donbas region – roughly 2,500 square miles in the Donetsk area – Russia will agree to end the conflict, and the U.S. (with the help of European countries) will guarantee Ukraine’s safety against future Russian aggression. However, it’s unlikely that Ukraine will want to give up the entire 20,000 square miles of the Donbas, and the terms of the deal are likely to shift if Zelenskyy and Putin meet in person. Stay tuned!

Return To Sender

Yesterday, Trump promised to end the use of mail-in ballots in federal elections, citing security issues. There are two motives behind this plan: first, Trump has blamed fraudulent mail-in ballots (among other things) for his 2020 loss to Biden; second, he really wants to maintain the GOP’s paper-thin majorities in the House and Senate. Since World War II, the party that holds the White House has lost an average of 26 House seats and four Senate seats – currently, Republicans hold the House 219-212 and the Senate 53-47, meaning their grasp on the legislative branch won’t survive unless they pull out all the stops.

“I am going to lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS, and also, while we're at it, Highly ‘Inaccurate,’ Very Expensive, and Seriously Controversial VOTING MACHINES,” Trump wrote yesterday. The announcement follows up on comments he made last Friday after meeting with Putin. “Vladimir Putin, smart guy, said you can't have an honest election with mail-in voting,” Trump said on Fox News. “He said there's not a country in the world that uses it now.”

“Remember, the States are merely an ‘agent’ for the Federal Government in counting and tabulating the votes,” he wrote. “They must do what the Federal Government, as represented by the President of the United States, tells them.” This is false – according to the Constitution, states are solely responsible for administering federal elections within their borders, and only Congress (not the president) can regulate those elections. We’ll have to wait and see how far Trump tries to push the Constitution.

Mexico’s Welfare Win

• Last week, Mexico’s national statistics agency released a report analyzing the effects of the country’s welfare policies. Under previous president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (nicknamed Amlo), Mexico implemented twice-monthly welfare payments for vulnerable populations and more than tripled its minimum wage. The result? The number of people living below the poverty line dropped 26% (from 52 million to 38.6 million) over the course of Amlo’s term, and the number of people in extreme poverty also shrunk from 9 million to 7 million. 

• “It’s something extraordinary, historic, the reduction [of poverty],” said Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s current president and an ally of Amlo. “‘For the good of all – first the poor’ is not just a slogan, but a reality in Mexico.” Amlo’s policies drove the minimum wage up from 88.40 pesos ($4.75) per day to 278.80 pesos ($15), spurring wage growth across the economy and even in the informal jobs sector. “We’re talking about a labor market that had a minimum wage well below the standard of living,”said one analyst. “And now it’s reached a level that allows 13.4 million families to escape poverty. It’s a historic achievement.” As a reminder, the last time the U.S. raised its minimum wage was in 2009.

This Deal Is Dead On Arrival

• Yesterday, Hamas negotiators agreed to a ceasefire deal proposal from Egypt and Qatar. According to the proposal, the group will release roughly 10 living Israeli hostages along with the bodies of 18 others in exchange for a 60-day truce and the release of Palestinians being held in Israeli prisons. During the truce, both sides will negotiate for a permanent ceasefire.

• The problem is that the proposal was extended by the U.S. in June, meaning it doesn’t currently have Israel’s approval. Just last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised that he would only agree to a deal if “all the hostages are released in one go,” and Israel’s cabinet is expected to approve an IDF ground invasion of Gaza City later this week. Doesn’t sound like the Israelis will be in the market for a ceasefire deal anytime soon.

Additional World News

• Son of Norway’s crown princess charged with four counts of rape (Guardian)

• Canada's Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre projected to win Parliament seat (BBC)

• 'No-one comes for us': The women trapped in Afghanistan's mental health system (BBC)

• Protests Highlight Growing Discontent With Netanyahu and the Gaza War (NYT, $)

• Italy's Ventina glacier has melted so much geologists now can only monitor it remotely (AP) 

• UK backs down in Apple privacy row, US says (BBC)

The Price Of Fake News

• Far-right cable channel Newsmax is paying out $67 million to Dominion Voting Systems in a settlement agreement. Dominion sued Newsmax for $1.6 billion in 2021 after the channel repeatedly claimed that the company had used its machines to rig votes in the 2020 presidential election.

• “We are pleased to have settled this matter,” said a spokesman for Dominion after the settlement deal was announced. As part of the deal, Newsmax does not have to apologize for its statements about Dominion, despite the fact that the judge ruled that there was “clear and convincing evidence” that the channel had knowingly spread false and defamatory stories about the company’s products. 

• The Newsmax case is just one part in a series of lawsuits involving voting systems firms and right-wing media outlets. In 2023, Fox News was forced to pay Dominion $787.5 million for its defamatory claims about the company, and Newsmax has also had to pay out $40 million to Smartmatic, a voting tech company similar to Dominion. The final episode will be Smartmatic’s $2.7 billion suit against Fox News, which is set to head to court soon unless the two parties come to a settlement.

The Redistricting Rumble Gets Rolling

• The nationwide redistricting battle is moving forward this week. On Monday, Texas Democrats returned home after a two-week absence from the state – they had fled Texas in order to block state Republicans from calling a special session, which the GOP will use to create more right-leaning voting districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. With the new proposed districts, Republicans will likely gain five new seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democrats say they’re ready to return to their state because California Democrats have unveiled their own redistricting plan, which will counter Texas Republicans’ plan by securing five House seats for Democrats.

• Texas’ plans simply need to be approved by the state legislature in a special session before they’re made official. California, however, will need voters to approve its redistricting in a statewide referendum in November. Currently, polls show that 52% of Californians are in favor of the plan, 41% are against, and 7% are undecided. Other states are also working on similar redistricting plans along partisan lines.

Additional USA News

• Trump administration halts visas for people from Gaza after Laura Loomer questions arrivals (AP)

• Trump Administration Discusses Taking 10% Stake in Intel (NYT, $)

• US border agent fires at moving vehicle during immigration stop, officials say (Guardian)

• Hurricane Erin drives dangerous waves to East Coast as new tropical system brews in its wake (CNN)

• Businesses face 'chaos' as EPA aims to repeal its authority over climate pollution (NPR) 

• Pam Bondi’s Power Play (New Yorker)

Mumbai Vs. The Rats Of The Sky

• Pigeons are tearing India apart. Over the summer, local authorities and public health advocates in Mumbai have clashed with bird lovers and certain religious groups over a recent ban on pigeon feeding in the city. A local court ruling ordered the closure of a pigeon-feeding spot (called a kabutarkhana in Hindi), leading to physical altercations between protesters and police. Other cities across India have implemented fines for feeding pigeons, and the capital city of Delhi is considering an advisory against feeding the birds.

• These attempts to regulate pigeons are based on a growing body of research which indicates that prolonged exposure to pigeon droppings can cause a wide variety of illnesses. Plus all that poop probably smells bad. “Even if you don't directly feed pigeons, their droppings on window sills and balconies can cause hypersensitivity pneumonitis,” said one expert. “We also see bacterial, viral and fungal infections in people handling pigeons regularly.” India’s pigeon populations have grown by over 150% over the past 25 years, and each bird produces up to 33 pounds of poop per year.

• Of course, plenty of people disagree with the government’s anti-pigeon policy. Some people simply enjoy feeding the birds, but the Jain religious group views feeding pigeons as a religious duty. “They are innocent. Perhaps the most innocent of all creatures. All they ask for is a little kindness,” said one man who’s been feeding pigeons for over 40 years.

Additional Reads

• AI Is a Mass-Delusion Event (Atlantic)

• The La Popote restaurant appeals to teetotalers with the UK’s first water menu (CNN)

• The serious trend behind MSNBC’s silly new name (Vox) 

• GPT-5 failed the hype test (Verge)

• The psychic who healed me (Psyche)

• Why Is Everything Spicy Now? (Atlantic)

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