Nvidia's Earnings Report & Trump's Secret Ukraine Deal

Hi readers, happy Thursday! Today we’re covering Nvidia’s earnings, a backroom deal on Ukraine, Russian lasers in Britain, Saudi Arabia’s investments, jobs numbers, the Epstein bill, and ultra-processed foods.

“You should always be trying to write a poem you are unable to write, a poem you lack the technique, the language, the courage to achieve. Otherwise you're merely imitating yourself, going nowhere, because that's always easiest.” ― John Berryman

The Entire Economy Depends On This

Yesterday marked the most important day for the American economy in the past few weeks: Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings report. CEO Jensen Huang announced that his company’s sales had jumped 62% year-over-year to $57 billion for the quarter ending in October, beating Wall Street’s predictions of $54.9 billion. Off of those sales, Nvidia profited $31.9 billion, 65% higher than the same period last year and also beating Wall Street projections. For the next quarter, the company predicts it will make $65 billion in revenue, well above analyst predictions of $61 billion.

“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” said Huang in the earnings call. “From our vantage point, we see something very different. As a reminder, Nvidia is unlike any other accelerator. We excel at every phase of AI from pre-training to post-training to inference.” In a press release, he added, “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out. Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference – each growing exponentially. We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI … AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.” What a relatable movie reference from one of the richest men on earth!

Tech stocks and the wider stock market (basically the same thing at this point) surged on the news, reversing a sell-off of tech stocks over fears that the AI bubble popping soon. Ironically, one Ouroboros-shaped indication that we might be in a bubble is actually an Nvidia deal announced on Tuesday, which will see Nvidia and Microsoft invest $10 billion and $5 billion into Anthropic, which will turn around and spend $30 billion on Microsoft’s cloud services, which run on Nvidia’s chips. Nvidia’s earnings seem to indicate that the bubble will likely hold for at least a little while longer, and we’ll have to keep reading stories about tech companies passing around billions of dollars like hot potatoes.

The Art Of The Backroom Deal

According to reports from Reuters and the Financial Times, the Trump administration has circumvented the government of Ukraine in order to work out a peace deal with Russia. The draft plan was apparently hammered out by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Kremlin adviser Kirill Dmitriev via unofficial channels.

Ukraine has yet to approve the deal, though the fact that the proposal even exists puts enormous pressure on Kyiv. The terms of the peace framework – which apparently contains a total of 28 points – includes Ukraine giving up some of its eastern territory and halving the size of its military. Kyiv has stated in the past that both of those points are non-starters, but the U.S. has also never put real pressure on Ukraine to make such major concessions in a peace deal. Also, Ukraine has had its negotiating position weakened over the past few weeks: Russia is continuing to make territorial gains in the ground war, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is struggling to meet demand as winter closes in, and some of Kyiv’s top ministers were recently sacked over a massive corruption scandal. 

Neither the White House nor the Kremlin have commented on the proposal, but U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to address the reports on X, writing, “Ending a complex and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine requires an extensive exchange of serious and realistic ideas. And achieving a durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions. That is why we are and will continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides of this conflict.”

Save Big on Hydrow Rowers Today

This Laser Was Made For Pointing

• In the U.S., pointing a laser at a plane can result in up to five years in prison and fines of $250,000. Unfortunately for the U.K.’s Royal Air Force (RAF), Russian spy ships are probably not too worried about American laws. Yesterday, U.K. defense secretary John Healey told reporters that – sometime within the last two weeks – a Russian spy ship had entered U.K. waters and shined lasers at RAF pilots tracking its location.

• Healey stated that the laser-pointing was “deeply dangerous” and is being taken “extremely seriously” by the U.K.’s military. “My message to Russia and to Putin is this: we see you. We know what you're doing. And if the Yantar [the spy ship in question] travels south this week, we are ready,” he added. Apparently, the incident marks the second time this year that the Yantar has entered U.K. waters, with the first incursion occurring in January. 

• The incident highlights concerns across Europe that the Kremlin is becoming more aggressive as the war in Ukraine grinds on – E.U. countries are increasing their defense spending via a defense loan scheme, and the U.K. is looking to join in on the effort to combat Moscow.

Bin Salman Spends Big

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Washington earlier this week. Ahead of the visit, Trump – as you read our last edition – agreed to sell Saudi Arabia two squadrons of F-35s, the most advanced stealth fighter jets on the planet. Yesterday, it was revealed that the Saudi Kingdom’s F-35s would be delivered with fewer capabilities than Israel’s F-35s due to a U.S. law that prioritizes granting Israel a military edge over other Middle Eastern countries.

• But enough about planes – let’s talk about diplomacy. As part of the visit, the Saudi Crown Prince signed off on multiple agreements with Washington, including a nuclear cooperation pact, a rare earths mineral trade deal, a strategic defense agreement, and a deal granting the Saudis access to America’s cutting-edge AI chips. Across those deals, the oil kingdom is committed to investing a whopping $1 trillion into the U.S. economy in the future, marking a significant increase from the $600 billion it promised when Trump visited Riyadh earlier this year.

Additional World News

• Once a Pariah, Saudi Prince Resets U.S. Relations on His Own Terms (NYT, $) 

• Israel's military carries out strikes in Lebanon and Gaza, killing dozens of people (AP)

• Samoa PM suspends country’s only daily newspaper from press briefings amid dispute over coverage (Guardian)

• Instagram to start closing Australian teen accounts ahead of social media ban (BBC)

• Climate Change Is Stressing Italy’s Cows, and Coming for Your Burrata (NYT, $) 

• Offhand remark, symbolic suit signal long winter for Japan-China ties (Reuters)

No Work For The Labor Department

• Ignorance, as they say, is bliss. Luckily for us, the Labor Department is letting us live on in bliss for just a while longer. Yesterday, the department announced that it wouldn’t be releasing a full jobs report for October thanks to the government shutdown, and also stated that it would be delaying its November jobs report until December 16. 

• A normal Labor Department jobs report relies on two collections of data. First, a survey of American households that’s used to gather data on unemployment and other economic numbers; second, a survey of private companies, nonprofits, and government agencies, which the department uses to track job creation, wages, and other labor market numbers.

• In Wednesday’s announcement, the agency stated that it had been unable to conduct October’s household survey, but added that it could still collect data for the second survey. Those numbers will be released with the November jobs report. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that the data released on December 16 will show an economy in good health. The economy has shed over 1 million jobs so far this year, a massive increase compared to 2024, and it seems like retailers are keeping holiday hirings low.

The End Of The Epstein Saga… For Now

• On Tuesday, the GOP-controlled House voted 427-1 in favor of a bill that will make the Justice Department release “all unclassified records, documents, communications, and investigative materials” related to its investigation into deceased sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein and his co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell. Yesterday, the Senate unanimously approved that bill as well – President Trump signed the bill into law on the same day, and the Justice Department will now have 30 days to release the documents.

• The president has made headlines for being a close friend of Epstein’s and also being featured in a recently-released tranche of emails from Epstein’s account. In one of those emails, the disgraced financier wrote to Maxwell, “I want you to realize that that dog that hasn’t barked is Trump.. [VICTIM] spent hours at my house with him.” Despite those connections, Trump is expected to pass the Epstein files bill, as the political implications of blocking it might actually cause him to lose supporters.

Additional USA News

• Judge tosses DOJ lawsuit challenging a New York law barring immigration agents from state courts (AP)

• The FDA has warned against this ‘natural remedy’ for joint pain. San Francisco immigrants still trust it (Guardian) 

• Larry Summers to Stop Teaching at Harvard While It Investigates His Epstein Ties (NYT, $) 

• The contradiction at the heart of the trillion-dollar AI race (BBC)

• Poll: Democrats have biggest advantage for control of Congress in 8 years (NPR)

• The Trump Steamroller Is Broken (Atlantic, $)

Ultra-Processed = Ultra-Unhealthy?

• Step aside, vaping and carbs – the latest threat to our health is the spread of ultra-processed foods. Ultra-processed foods (UPF) are defined as any food containing more than five ingredients you wouldn’t find in your kitchen cupboard, such as emulsifiers (like guar gums), dyes (like red 40), or preservatives (like sorbates).

• According to a paper recently published in the Lancet, the shift from consuming whole to ultra-processed foods is exposing humanity to increased risk of contracting chronic diseases such as obesity and depression. The paper, a meta-analysis of 104 long-term health studies, suggests that UPFs might be detrimental to health because they contain too much sugar and unhealthy fats while lacking fiber and protein. 

• The paper’s authors state that governments across the globe need to “step up” regulations on UPF, including warning labels and higher taxes. However, it’s not clear that the analysis actually shows a link between processing chemicals and negative health outcomes. The Nova food classification system used in the study has been criticized for ignoring the nutritional value of processed foods – for example, wholegrain bread and low-fat yogurts are classified as “ultra-processed” despite offering plenty of nutritional benefits.

Additional Reads

• The Biggest AI Companies Met to Find a Better Path for Chatbot Companions (Wired, $)

• The Ozempic era should change how we think about self-control (Psyche) 

• Olympic snowboarder-turned-drug kingpin charged with murder of witness, say US officials (BBC) 

• NASA Releases Images of Comet 3I/ATLAS Passing by Mars (NYT, $)

• Everyone in L.A. Wants a Giant Front Door (Curbed) 

• Spotify acquires music database WhoSampled (TechCrunch)

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