More Iran-Israel, The Fed Announcement, & Social Security's Out Of Money

Hello readers, happy Juneteenth! Today, we’re keeping our eyes on Iran-Israel, the Fed’s rate announcement, Canada-India relations, a new Covid variant, Social Security’s budget problems, another ICE arrest, and a big crypto deal.

Here’s the good news: the FDA has approved a twice-yearly shot which can prevent HIV. PrEP, most people’s current HIV prevention method, needs to be ingested in pill form daily, making this new jab a less-annoying alternative. Also, the U.K.’s Parliament voted to decriminalize abortion for women in England and Wales.

“One can choose to go back toward safety or forward toward growth. Growth must be chosen again and again; fear must be overcome again and again.” – Abraham Maslow

Trump Threatens Tehran

Not much has changed in the Iran-Israel conflict besides the usual trading of missiles and words, though the U.S. is creeping closer to joining in on the fun. Hopefully no nuclear bombs were dropped in between the writing of this email and the time it hits your inbox. On Tuesday, Trump demanded Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” over TruthSocial, adding that the U.S. and Israel had “complete and total control of the skies over Iran.” He also said Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was “an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” Just a day later, Khamenei warned that U.S. involvement in the conflict would cause “irreparable damage to them.” 

Hours after that ominous warning, Trump spoke to reporters on the White House lawn. He claimed that Iran had requested a diplomatic meeting with the U.S. despite Khamenei’s bluster. After that, he toyed with the idea of dragging the U.S. into yet another Middle Eastern conflict. “I may do it. I may not do it,” Trump said. “I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do.”

While Trump was keeping Americans in the dark regarding his decision, Iranians were dealing with a blackout of their own. Iran faced a near-total internet blackout on Tuesday and Wednesday as Israeli missiles continued falling. According to two companies that track internet outages, virtual private networks which are used to access foreign websites were particularly affected by the outages, as were Western social media sites like WhatsApp and Instagram. 

Powell Plays It Safe

The Federal Reserve announced that it would be keeping interest rates steady at roughly 4.3% this month as it waits to see how tariffs, White House policies, and global conflicts affect the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the bank is still planning to lower interest rates two more times this year. 

Generally, when the Fed lowers its interest rates, it’s easier for businesses and people to spend and invest, which drives economic growth. The tradeoff is that inflation can quickly rise, which the bank wants to avoid. This month, according to Powell, the Fed is tracking that economic growth is slowing while unemployment is rising – paired with lower inflation, this would normally prompt a rate cut to make things easier for businesses. However, the Fed predicts that Trump tariffs will likely raise inflation, making the bank wary of cutting rates. “Increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity,” Powell said. “This is something we know is coming, we just don’t know the size of it.”

“We have to be forward looking,” Powell added. “We expect a meaningful amount of inflation to arrive in coming months and we have to take that into account… Unless we see a really, really rapid deterioration in the labor market we won’t see a cut until September, and maybe not even then.”

Keep Your Data Off The Web

Cooling Down In The Canadian Summer

• India and Canada indicated a significant thaw in their icy relationship on Wednesday. Following this week’s G7 summit in Canada, the two nations separately announced that they would be re-appointing ambassadors, restarting trade talks, and restoring visa processing. The detente comes after a year of diplomatic spats between the two countries after Canada accused India of assassinating a Canadian Sikh community leader on Canadian soil in 2023.

• At the same time, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service issued a report to Parliament regarding foreign interference in Canada. “Indian officials, including their Canada-based proxy agents, engage in a range of activities that seek to influence Canadian communities and politicians,” read part of the report. “These activities attempt to steer Canada’s positions into alignment with India’s interests on key issues, particularly with respect to how the Indian government perceives Canada-based supporters of an independent homeland that they call Khalistan.” Talk about fake friends…

The Summer Of Sore Throats

• You know what your summer plans are missing? A new Covid variant! According to doctors in the U.K., India, and Southeast Asia, this new variant – named NB.1.8.1. or “Nimbus” – is becoming a larger share of detected Covid cases across the globe, and features a painful new symptom: “razor blade throat.”

• The World Health Organization said that the Nimbus variant reached 11% of global Covid samples in May. So far, it’s seen an uptick of cases in the eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia and western Pacific regions. In the U.S., the variant was detected in travelers headed to California, Washington, Virginia, and New York. Luckily, the only extra symptom of the Nimbus variant is the extra-painful sore throat, which you can expect to feel on top of the usual Covid fever, shortness of breath, and lack of taste and smell.

Additional World News

• A Saudi journalist tweeted against the government – and was executed for ‘high treason’ (Guardian)

• Spanish blackout report: Power plants meant to stabilize voltage didn’t (Ars Technica)

• Israel-linked group hacks Iranian cryptocurrency exchange in $90m heist (Guardian)

• Hurricane Erick strengthens to a Category 3 storm as it nears Mexico's Pacific coast (AP)

• Zelenskiy leaves G7 with no Trump meeting or fresh arms support from US (Reuters)

Social Security’s Fiscally Insecurities

• According to a report by the Social Security Board of Trustees, the trust fund that Social Security uses to payout its retirement benefits is set to run out of money by 2033. After that point – a year earlier than previous assessments projected – Congress will need to shift some money into the fund in order for Social Security beneficiaries to continue receiving payments. 

• Luckily, there’s precedent for such a move, but the fast-approaching deadline means Congress is “running out of time to phase in changes gradually and avoid harsh cuts, sharp tax increases, or unacceptable borrowing,” said one federal budget analyst. Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund, which covers certain healthcare costs for Medicare Part A beneficiaries, is also set to run dry by 2033. Republicans and Democrats are predictably split on how to deal with the funding crisis – one side wants to raise taxes to keep the fund afloat, while the other wants to slash federal benefits for other groups to cover the costs.

Lander Lands Behind Bars

• A group of masked ICE agents arrested a New York City mayoral candidate on Tuesday. Brad Lander, a candidate who is currently serving as the city’s comptroller, was arrested while visiting an immigration court and attempting to help walk a group of immigrants out of the building. A spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security claimed that Lander “was arrested for assaulting law enforcement and impeding a federal officer.”

• After being released with no charges against him (interesting!) Lander told the press that he “certainly did not” lay a finger on any ICE agents. Footage of the incident shows the mayoral candidate asking ICE agents if they actually have an arrest warrant for the immigrant man they were trying to detain. “I’m not obstructing. I’m standing right here in the hallway. I asked to see the judicial warrant,” he says in the video. As ICE agents pin him to a wall and handcuff him, Lander again tells them, “You don’t have the authority to arrest US citizens asking for a judicial warrant.” Zohran Mamdani, one of the frontrunners in New York City’s mayoral race, spoke out against Lander’s arrest on X, posting: “This is fascism and all New Yorkers must speak in one voice. Release him now.” 

Additional USA News

• Isn't Trump Supposed to Be Anti-War? (Atlantic)

• US supreme court upholds Tennessee ban on youth gender-affirming care (Guardian)

• Jury finds Karen Read not guilty of second-degree murder in Boston police boyfriend's death (AP)

• Trump Travel Restrictions Bar Residents Needed at U.S. Hospitals (NYT, $)

• Print and shoot: How 3D-printed guns are spreading online (BBC)

A Genius Way To Make A Profit

• Crypto bros took another step closer to becoming normal bros as the Senate passed the so-called GENIUS Act on Tuesday. The new bill establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins – cryptocurrencies designed to keep a stable value tied to a real-world currency like the dollar – which crypto investors are hoping will bring their industry a new air of legitimacy.

• The GENIUS Act passed 68-30 with bipartisan support thanks to a massive, uh, “lobbying push” by the crypto industry. One of the law’s provisions reads, “the claim of a person holding payment stablecoins issued by the payment stablecoin issuer shall have priority over all other claims against the payment stablecoin issuer.” According to Georgetown Law professor Adam Levitin – who specializes in financial regulations – this means that “if a bank custodian for a stablecoin issuer's reserves ends up insolvent, the claims of the stablecoin investors will come ahead of the bank depositors. That's right. Crypto comes ahead of ma-and-pa.”

• The bill will now head to the Republican-held House, where it’s likely to face even less pushback than it did in the Senate. If it hits Trump’s desk, the president will probably sign off on it faster than you can say “Trumpcoin.” Last week, Trump reported a whopping $57 million in income from crypto sales through just one of his companies – he has his fingers in even more crypto operations through his family and other companies, meaning his net worth will explode even more if the GENIUS Act is passed.

Additional Reads

• The Online Tools That Fueled ‘No Kings’ and the Trump Resistance (Wired)

• The Definitive, Insane, Swimsuit-Bursting Story of the Steroid Olympics (Wired)

• What happens when you feed AI nothing (Verge)

• Los Angeles Lakers to sell majority ownership in historic deal (BBC) 

• Tesla’s Robotaxi, Long Promised by Elon Musk, Joins a Crowded Field (NYT, $)

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Writer & Editor: Marcus Gee-Lim

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